What Is Chaos Theory In Gambling: Can It Predict Outcome?

When there is gambling random probabilities and outcomes are usual in nature. No one, neither the player nor the casino, can predict the outcomes and possibilities. The thing that the casinos rely on is the overall advantage that their games have which is in favour of the casino. This dependence assumes a static wager by the player. With this, all of the variables also remain constant. In probability mathematics, there is a concept which tends to challenge this idea and that concept is known as chaos theory.

What Is Chaos Theory In Gambling: Can It Predict Outcome?

What does chaos theory mean in reference to gambling?

To explain this theory let’s take an example of a geometric figure on a plain, for an instance let us consider a line on a surface when you look at that line closely and when you look at that line in a larger context the appearance differs vividly. This perspective is what the chaos theory is all about. The mathematical derivation of this chaos theory is quite complex and seems to be difficult to understand by many gamblers. Hence without going to the mathematical part of this chaos theory, we will see how it is useful for gambling.


Every game has its own rules and regulations that the casino makes use of. In blackjack, these rules depend upon whether you can double after the split off if the dealer stands or hits on a soft 17. The system of blackjack is a bit dependable system and hence it is not based on the law of independent trials. If sometimes when an Ace is played then there is one less Ace in the deck available for a Blackjack. Yet it is a good lead into estimating games that are more accepted as adhering to the law of independent trials. In blackjack when a player plays each card adds or subtracts from the house’s initial advantage. When a player chooses and deals the appropriate card then the advantage swings to the positive side. The players then increase their bets by some amount and can gain the advantage over the house. These small changes in the game of blackjack are what chaos theory is all about. The changes that occur are small and cause drastic down-stream results.

Consider the following example, when an Ace is played, the deck only has 3 other aces to be dealt. When this happens, it is better to evaluate the game that is more accepted as it adheres to the independent law trials. Thus, it can be said without a bias that in blackjack, the cards that were played in the previous hands will affect the cards that will be played in the next rounds. With every card, the house is either gaining some advantage or losing some opportunity. This condition is true for all the other games played in the casino too. Although the dynamics with other games are much more subtle. The Chaos theory is applicable in the Blackjack as the small changes cause drastic changes in the end results.


In the game of roulette, there is a wheel with numbers from 1-36, 0 and a slot with 00. If you consider the mathematical derivation, the chances that the ball will stop on one of the slots after every 38 times. But the world is not perfect and this situation although possible is not bound to happen. Every time the ball is spun, the conditions are different.

When it is about roulette every gambler is aware of the less number of probabilities of winning and the wheel which has 38 spaces in that space where will the ball exactly land is a huge question in roulette. The condition of winning remains same for every spin but this is not the case because with time the wheel can have wear and tear because it is a mechanical device and so it cannot work properly for the whole time. Considering all these possibilities of temperature friction on the winning, the chances are predicted.

All of these differences may seem unimportant to the leisure player, but as chaos theory teaches us small changes leads to drastic shifts in the end results. These were the effects of the small changes in the game which affects the end result, but now what will be the end result? In this case, some numbers will come up more frequently than others, creating a number bias, hence determining the bias for the player is a huge question. Unfortunately, there is no specific short way to determine the outcome. There is only one way and that is to collect data; more specifically a whole lot of data. And by a whole lot of data, we mean data which is not less than 50,000 spins on a given roulette wheel which should be evaluated.

It is a very time consuming to collect all the data from one roulette wheel and thus the best and the most effective way of collecting the data is by taking data from more than one roulette machine at a time.

The data collected should be documented and put in a sheet to evaluate the frequency of a number. The frequency of more than 1 in 36 is a normal, neutral frequency while a frequency of a number that is more than 1 in 36 is a positive expectation. If such data is obtained for more than 2 wheels out of 10, then it is considered to be a great find and thus the chaos theory can be applied in bidding on the number.

Chaos theory can also be used in online casinos. Even in online casinos, there are chances of a bias in the system and thus to implement chaos theory in the online casino, the only challenge is to collect data from the online casino.

The casino theory explains how to take smaller changes into consideration and predict the output for your advantage!

Rate this post

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *


Name: What Is Chaos Theory In Gambling: Can It Predict Outcome?

Posted On: 28/03/2019

Author: Darren Henley